Given the winds of change at the provincial level and traditional voting patterns of Canadians at the federal level, we should expect a Conservative minority government, possibly even Conservative majority. A Conservative leader with vision, charisma, and passion would have a high probability of securing a majority, (fortunately for Canadians Andrew Sheer does not appear to have those qualities)[i] . Where does that leave us?
[i] [i] https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/02/04/Andrew-Scheer-Political-Klutz/
Lets discuss some of the issues facing voters today.
- Jobs
The central issue in any election. Nationally Canadian unemployment[i] has been decreasing steadily since 2010; sadly the province of Alberta saw it’s unemployment rate[ii] double during the period that Rachel Notley was Premier. This is of nation-wide significance for many reasons I will subsequently address.
- Corruption/Mismanagement
Despite
starting off strong by ending Canada’s involvement in the Middle East and
legalizing marijuana (fulfilling election promises), Trudeau’s federal
government has been particularly bad[iii]
and has gotten progressively worse over time by reneging on key election
promises (such as electoral reform[iv]),
and by becoming embroiled in more and more scandals highlighting moral
depravity[v]. Kathleen Wynne’s Ontario governments’[vi]
total mismanagement of the energy sector far overshadowed many of the good
things that they did for the people of Ontario.
[i] https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate
[ii] https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/Unemployment
[iii] https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/luke-rebello/justin-trudeau-broken-promises_b_13900284.html
[iv] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/justin-trudeau-abandons-voter-reform-canada
[v] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/03/justin-trudeau-canada-liberal-mps-scandal-snc
[vi] https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-five-sins-behind-kathleen-wynnes-power-failure/
- Foreign relationships affecting Canadian jobs
Our relationship with our largest trading partner the United States is likely as good as it could be, considering current circumstances.
Our relationship with China hopefully has hit all-time lows and is effecting Canadians.
Most other issues will likely have limited influence because many of them are regional or the audience is smaller.
Jobs, Fear, and stubborn adherence to “If it’s not broken don’t fix it!”
Throughout recent history it has been a high probability bet to sustain or grow a society’s standard of living by satisfying society’s energy addiction. The province of Alberta has relied, supplied, and mostly thrived exploiting the province’s significant fossil fuel reserves. Albertans were the epitome of “If it’s not broken don’t fix it!” consecutively electing a Conservative majority government[ix] four times. So let’s try to imagine the thought processes associated with the decision to break with tradition and try to do their part to address climate change by electing a government that would promote renewable energy sources.
There are primarily two thoughts that could prompt you to overcome the fear of potentially damaging their own personal wealth in lieu of the wealth of generations to come.
- Potentially making a personal sacrifice for others.
- Recognizing that being leaders in popular fields can be very prolific
In this case, the first thought being socially admirable and the second being forward looking, need not be exclusive of one another and are far likely so closely connected widespread adoption should positively impact not only the planet but humanity itself.
What happened?
Both Ontario and Alberta, arguably were the two most influential provinces in Canada and the successful implementation of policies aimed at out phasing out fossil fuel use, could have had massive implications first in Canada and then across the world. Unfortunately: Kathleen Wynne’s botched attempt to sell off Hydro One created significant grief[1] for almost all Ontarians and her use of tax payer money to (basically) pay the rich to invest in renewable energy wasn’t popular, Rachel Notley’s incentive program was not as successful as hoped, unemployment spiked[x] and her support of the Trans-Mountain Pipeline expansion if nothing else sent mixed signals about her convictions. The failure of these governments left their respective populaces angry and they vented this frustration at the polls.
How does this apply to the 2019 Federal Election?
The
potential impact on jobs and its’ significant impact on climate change[i]
make the proposed Trans-Mountain pipeline expansion (TMEX) a central issue in
Canadian politics now and likely will be, regardless of whether or not
construction starts before, during the election. The oil sands’ negative impact[ii]
on climate change makes it impossible for one to credibly claim they want to
fight climate change and support the TMEX.
[i] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/04/16/news/oilsands-polluted-more-entire-economies-bc-or-quebec
[ii] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/04/16/news/oilsands-polluted-more-entire-economies-bc-or-quebec
- If the Trudeau government once again chooses to support the TMEX it is highly likely they will suffer the same the fate as Wynne and Notley; resulting in a Conservative government, likely pushing back any meaningful attempt to address climate change.
- If they scrap the TMEX in June 2019 the picture gets murky, this admission that they were wrong would give them some credibility as opponents of climate change and may save some federal Liberal seats west of the Manitoba/Ontario border. The result a minority/coalition government of some type.
Possibilities
I have met[xiii] Mr. Singh and found him to be thoughtful, charismatic, and genuine, I truly hope that Mr. Singh can convince the Canadian electorate that he has the integrity and skills to maintain and grow their standard of living while being better environmental stewards. His involvement within a government could change Canadian politics and the way we interact with the world.
The election of Mr. Kenney as Alberta premier could be a boon for the Liberals (if they drop the TMEX) and the NDP. His rhetoric is reminiscent of that the high school bully that did not get his way, and the electorate will likely treat him as such.
As I write there are several hints that the Trudeau government may have realized this and may abandon the proposal in June 2019[xiv]. Former top political advisor Martyn Brown discusses this in more detail in his Op-Ed.
What can be done better?
Because this issue is so important to Canadians and by extension, all humanity, I have dedicated no less than hundreds of hours researching the subject in an effort to provide a useful summary and logical solution/s, that should address most of the concerns all parties involved. Based on all this research and personal experience[xv] you can read about my economic findings in Part 1 and the Environmental reasoning in Part 2.
Here are some potential solutions highlighted by some of the governing failures noted above.
- JOBS! Just in case you missed it JOBS!
If Notley had maintained or even increased employment, she would very likely still be Alberta’s premier. Since the private sector did not pick up the slack even with the incentives, they could have started a crown corporation in addition to educational incentives aimed at migrating oil sand’s workers into renewable energy workers’. The crown corporation should be designed to jump start demand in renewable energy production.
I can hear the objections already!
Crown corporations do not work because… waste… inefficient… corruption etc.
These objections are nothing more than smoke screens as they imply that those qualities do not exist in the private sector[xvi]. Here are a few companies that were central, if not essential! to the growth of this country:
Canadian National Railway (CNR), Hudson’s Bay Company (Northwest Company), Petro-Canada, Air Canada, Farm Credit Canada, Export Development Canada, provincial electrical utilities, to name a few [xvii].
- Build- more electric car infrastructure. As a Leaf[i] owner in the Vancouver Lower Mainland I can assure you there is a need to significantly increase the number of charging stations.
- Attract- one or more electric car manufacturers to manufacture within Canada. Perhaps incentivize GM to retool their Oshawa plant to build electric vehicles avoiding imminent closure[ii]? The jobs in Oshawa were saved as I edited.[i]
[i] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/gm-unifor-oshawa-operations-1.5127356
[i] https://www.cars.com/research/nissan-leaf-2013/
[ii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-26/gm-is-said-to-plan-closure-of-canada-plant-with-2-200-workers
Investments in Geothermal and/or Fuel-cell technology.
- Competence – the privatization of Hydro One[xxi]; this really is inexcusable, successful examples are numerous and our ability to access information that we may need leaves little excuse for colossal mistakes affecting so many lives
- Communication – In his Op-Ed[xxii] Mr. Brown makes the case for better communication and I agree.
Sadly Canadians across the country seem to be equating the appearance of strength with better governance. Like our southern neighbors[xxiii] this return to the ‘tried and true’ policies of the past is seemingly associated with a disreguard for morality[xxiv].
Will Canadians be thinking about our long term future? We shall see.
Be Seeing you…
[1] A result that would be hard to
achieve if someone was intentionally trying to do this.
[i] [i] https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/02/04/Andrew-Scheer-Political-Klutz/
[ii] As I was editing this post he released this website: https://myvisionforcanada.ca/
[iii] https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate
[iv] https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/Unemployment
[v] https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/luke-rebello/justin-trudeau-broken-promises_b_13900284.html
[vi] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/justin-trudeau-abandons-voter-reform-canada
[vii] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/03/justin-trudeau-canada-liberal-mps-scandal-snc
[viii] https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-five-sins-behind-kathleen-wynnes-power-failure/
[ix] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Klein
[x] https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/Unemployment
[xi] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/04/16/news/oilsands-polluted-more-entire-economies-bc-or-quebec
[xii] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/04/16/news/oilsands-polluted-more-entire-economies-bc-or-quebec
[xiii] I have also met Mr. Stephen Harper and Mr Peter MacKay as basis for contrast
[xiv] https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1123579473214038016
[xv] Lifetime of being involved with mining industry including two plus years working in open pit oilsands mines, 4 months on a SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage) project, 11 years analyzing companies as a commodity broker
[xvi] https://www.interior-news.com/news/canada-slowly-pushes-for-corporate-transparency-as-part-of-anti-corruption-push/
[xvii] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_corporations_of_Canada#List_of_Canadian_Crown_corporations
[xviii] https://www.cars.com/research/nissan-leaf-2013/
[xix] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-26/gm-is-said-to-plan-closure-of-canada-plant-with-2-200-workers
[xx] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/gm-unifor-oshawa-operations-1.5127356
[xxi] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-bills-privatization-1.4439500
[xxii] https://www.straight.com/news/1236366/martyn-brown-countering-jason-kenneys-dirty-energy-crying-game
[xxiii] https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-water-regulations-roll-back-2019-3
[xxiv] https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/is-trump-yet-another-us-president-provoking-a-war?utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_051319&utm_medium=email&bxid=5bea05d83f92a404693eeb9a&cndid=51552672&esrc=&utm_term=TNY_Daily
